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Future Scouting…

Peace

How might we mitigate future rising conflicts?

The signals

Rising conflict

Volatility over certainty

Biotechnology advances

The cycle of conflict

How can we temper tension throughout the cycle of conflict?

The scenario

It’s 2022. Europe tensions are rising. Joe Biden leads the US and Kim Yo-jong has taken leadership of North Korea. Power shifts continue to disrupt, and measures for conflict prevention and human rights continue to be impaired. Conflict is inevitable!

Protracted conflicts rush leaders into making significant decisions, while spot-fires of internal conflict spark emotionally charged reactions that might further prolong the conflict.

In a future where conflict is inevitable, how can mindfulness and calm be maintained?

Breathing, mindfulness, and minimising tension

Just as the boots of troops fall into a rhythm as they march toward conflict, so too can the hearts of leaders and citizens of conflicting states fall into synch and contribute to tension minimisation.

Controlled breathing can strengthen leaders’ and citizens’ capacity to make calm and grounded decisions by filtering out the emotional distraction of rising tensions. Controlled breathing clears the bloodstream of the stress hormone cortisol while increasing the vitality hormone DHEA; reduces anxiety and blood pressure; allows us to control our emotional state; and fosters strong cognitive performance. [1][2]

1. Williams, M. The Science Behind BreathSync.

2. Zaccaro, A., & Piarulli, A. How Breath-Control Can Change Your Life.

The design fiction

As the world accepts conflict is inevitable, an approach is taken to focus on minimising the tension.

The One Heart Treaty uses common smartphone heart monitor technology, a breathing app, and rituals, to connect the hearts of citizens with their leaders’—and with the citizens and leaders of the states they are in conflict with—by synching them to the one controlled breathing rhythm. While also providing a symbol of their one shared heart—that users can hold in their hand—the One Heart must be kept strong by all involved in the conflict that connects them.

Two screens showing the Treaty of One Heart app—one shows a world leader's heart breathing-in and out, while the other screen shows citizens of conflicting countries syncing their hearts

How does the treaty work?

Leaders maintain peace with mindfulness by syncing their hearts through controlled breathing

An illustration explaining the Treaty of One Heart app and how a world leader uses it to sync their breathing an heart rate with another world leader

Leaders and citizens maintain mindfulness throughout the conflict cycle to minimise tension

An illustrative poster explaining the Treaty of One Heart app and how it is used through the cycle of conflict.

Values championed

Future Scouting aims to champion values during futuring to ensure we are always fostering our preferred futures.

The values championed through this scouting were:

Peace

Unity

Commitment

Design fictions

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